Data-Driven Political Analysis Breakdown
Between 2012 and 2016, we experienced a revolution in data-driven political analysis using public opinion polls. Then in 2016, we decided data-driven analysis was bunk. What changed?
Absolutely nothing changed, and that is the problem. People are stupid, by and large, and we have not so far surpassed our superstitious ancestors looking for omens in the skies or goat entrails or whatnot.
When Nate Silver and the rest of his pocket-protectored math nerds correctly predicted, almost to the county level, the outcome of the 2012 election,…